Moderate north winds are forecasted to develop sometime today through Monday.  There is a lot of loose snow available for transport that will form sensitive wind slabs in areas where north winds are present.  Our area has received a foot of new snow on 2/11 near the coast with around 6 inches on Thompson Pass.  Decreasing temperatures overnight will be increasing the stability of storm snow at the surface in areas unaffected by wind.

Stability today will directly correlate with the amount of wind that occurs.  In areas that are being affected by north winds, human triggered avalanches will be likely 1-2 feet in depth.  Winds are not forecasted to be strong or widespread over the next 48 hours, although the extent and degree of wind that actually occurs will dictate the stability across our forecast area.

In areas unaffected by wind, human triggered avalanches will be possible up to 1 foot in depth.  Convex and or unsupported snow slopes will be the most prone to triggers.  

Up to a foot of new snow has put additional stress on a decomposing rain crust that exists below 2500′ that has recently showed signs of instability near the coast.  This layer exists in all three forecast zones but has only been found to be a concern in the Maritime zone,  this includes Keystone Canyon.  This rain crust has lost strength since it has formed and has created a weak layer.  It will be possible for the 1/25 rain crust to act as a failure plane in steep terrain at low elevations in the maritime climate zone.

Watch for signs of instability such as shooting cracks and collapsing.  Digging snowpits to assess stability in the area you choose to travel is a good idea if choosing to travel in steep terrain at low elevations in the Maritime climate zone.

Weak snow continues to exist near the base of our snowpack in all three climate zones.  This weak snow has recently been under increasing pressure as heavy snowfall and strong winds occurred 2/5-7.  The last recorded avalanche activity at this layer occurred during the 1/23-25 storm on Nicks Buttress / ~3500’/ north aspect (see avalanche activity section).  The amount of snow and wind our area just received was significant, and was a great strength test of weak snow near the base of our snowpack.  No avalanches have been observed that failed or stepped down to this layer during the latest storm.  Human triggered avalanches are currently unlikely to occur that fail on weak snow near the base of our snowpack.

Faceted snow near the ground has been found to vary significantly from place to place.  In most locations this snow has been found to be rounding (gaining strength) and unreactive in stability tests.  In thin areas of the snowpack these facets are significantly more developed.  The most likely places to affect weak snow near the ground will be in areas where the snowpack is thin.

If you find it is possible to push a ski pole to the ground in areas you travel.  Assume that a weak faceted snowpack exists in that location, that could act as a trigger point.  An example of the difference in faceted snow that has been recently found can be seen below.

Depth hoar from Nicks Buttress ~4000′ North aspect 1/31.

Rounding depth hoar on Cracked Ice / north aspect/ 3000′  on 2/11.