Valdez

Forecast Expired - 12/18/2018

Above 3,000ftConsiderable

1,500 to 3,000ftConsiderable

Below 1,500ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Persistent Slab:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 3

Loose Snow:

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

On December 15th a small cornice was intentionally ski cut which triggered a small wind slab in steep terrain (45deg), in Loveland basin, N facing, at 4700′, 12″ deep.

There have been no other avalanches reported in the last several days. Please share field observations, even just from the road!

Weather

From the National Weather Service Rec Forecast:
The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Worthington Glacier.
This forecast is for use in snow safety activities and emergency
management.
                   Today        Tonight

Temp at 1000`      31 F         28 F

Temp at 3000`      22 F         20 F

Chance of precip   100%         100%

Precip amount
(above 1000 FT)    0.43 in      0.75 in

Snow amount
(above 1000 FT)    4-7 in       6-11 in

Snow level         sea level    sea level

Wind 3000` ridges  NE 15-30 mph NE 14-28 mph

Remarks...None

The following surface map shows the approaching storm and why the wind will be coming from the NE.

Additional Information

If you get out riding, please send in an observation!

Start the season with fresh batteries in your beacon, and do a rescue practice with your partners. Always carry a beacon, shovel, and probe, and KNOW HOW TO USE THEM.

Practice good risk management, which means only expose one person at a time to slopes 30 degrees and steeper, make group communication and unanimous decision-making a priority, and choose your terrain wisely: eliminating unnecessary exposure and planning out your safe zones and escape routes.

Do you have the right route, the right group, the right skills on the right day?

Live to Ride Another Day!

Alerts

The avalanche danger is MODERATE at all elevations through the Thompson Pass region, HOWEVER it will rapidly jump to CONSIDERABLE overnight and on Monday December 17th due to the approaching storm with what the NWS calls an “impressive amount of moisture.”

Early season conditions: low snowpack with widespread variability including buried problem layers. Use caution as you enter avalanche terrain (slopes over 30deg) and be aware that avalanche terrain may be ABOVE you. Areas of thinner snowpack are more suspect for weaker and unstable snow especially further inland and north of 32 mile. We have seen a lot of recent snow, in a short amount of time, and have limited snowpack data!