Storm snow avalanches will be likely today in areas that have received more than 8 inches of snow in the last 24 hours.  This storm appears to be favoring our Maritime forecast zone with 5 inches at sea level and double that expected above 1500′.  Thompson Pass has seen lower amounts at the road, however Nicks snotel at 4200′ has recorded 4-6 new.  Additional snowfall of 4-8 inches near the coast with 2-4 inches near Thompson Pass is possible today.  Moderate to strong southeast winds accompanied this new snow at upper elevations, which will have formed deeper and stiffer slabs in specific locations.

As stated above, the hazard level will be dictated by the amount of new snow an area has received.  This will likely vary fairly significantly within our forecast area.  Locations that saw only minor accumulations will maintain a moderate hazard, with old wind loaded slopes being the main concern.  In areas with higher snowfall accumulations human triggered slab avalanches will be likely in steep terrain.  Wind loaded, convex and unsupported terrain will be the most suspect.  Pay attention to the depth and sensitivity of new snow, as well as the amount of wind redistribution that has occurred.

Wet loose activity will be likely today as the sun comes out.  New snow will easily be affected if the strong April sun makes an appearance.  Steep south aspects will be the first to show activity especially in steep rocky terrain.  So far this season wet loose activity has been below average.  Generally by this time of year steep solar aspects are beginning to lose mass by way of natural wet loose avalanche activity.  Many of these areas are still gaining mass, creating the potential for more substantial activity once temperatures rise to seasonal norms and wet loose/ wet slab activity begins in earnest.  Temperatures look to slowly stair step up this week but a drastic change is not yet in the forecast.

Timing is key in avoidance of this avalanche problem.  Pay attention to the amount of warmth that is being transferred into the snow surface (Is it becoming moist-wet?).  In general, it is recommended to avoid traveling on or being exposed to steep solar aspects as snow surfaces are becoming moist-wet.

Weak snow exists at the base of our snowpack.  This weak snow is currently unlikely to be affected due to the strength of old wind affected snow at the 3/17 new/old interface.  Depth hoar may become a concern later in the season if our area returns to a period of major snowfall and the very strong wind damaged layer at the new/old interface starts to break down and lose strength within the snowpack.  As very hard wind slabs break down within the snowpack, a person or machines weight will have a more direct affect on weak layers at the bottom of the snowpack.  In addition,  the increasing intensity of the sun will be putting pressure on deep layers during the heat of the day.

This problem is difficult to assess.  if we do see deep slab avalanches begin to occur in our forecast zone, they will likely first show up on south aspects.  This has not occurred yet, but would be a clear indicator of an increasing potential to see this avalanche problem on other aspects.