Haines Avalanche Center
Above 2,500ftConsiderable
1,500 to 2,500ftConsiderable
Below 1,500ftConsiderable
Degrees of Avalanche Danger
Avalanche Problems
Problem 1
Aspect: All aspects
Elevation: All elevations
Bottom Line: Heavy snowfall will increase the likelihood of human triggered avalanches within the new snow. Throughout the week cold temperatures created a hard bed surface and with Tuesday night’s low density snowfall, a series of storm layers in the upper snowpack are forming an upside-down setup. Numerous red flags are likely to be present to warn you of greater instabilities, these include rapid loading, rising temperatures and drifting snow.
Travel Advice:
- Make solid weather observations that inform the avalanche danger
- Look for rapid changes, including heavy snowfall, rising temperatures and wind loading
- Use low consequence test slopes to identify reactive storm snow
- Avoid recently wind-loaded slopes and active loading!
- Keep an eye out for deeper instabilities, including shooting cracks, whumphing or collapsing that indicate a stiffer slab over weaker snow
- Be mindful of any terrain that is above you that has the potential to naturally avalanche
- Stay out of terrain traps where new snow could knock you into a hazard or pile up quickly, such as gullies or tree-wells
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Problem 2
Aspect: All aspects, especially wind-protected basins, aprons below steep terrain (see photos in Avalanche Activity Section below)
Elevation: Treeline and above.
Bottom Line: Surface hoar was observed in this zone on Jan 20th. 2-4ft of new snow and wind slabs now lay on top of this dangerous weak layer. Several slopes were observed to avalanche naturally after last week’s storm with wide propagation, while others have not. The new snowfall and increasing temperatures continue to add stress and may tip the scales to this lurking problem.
The likelihood of natural avalanches in the alpine is increasing through the weekend, avoid run-out zones and significant avalanche terrain, especially in poor visibility. There were active layers during the last storm, and many slopes may be on the brink, waiting for a trigger.
Travel Advice:
- Limit travel in the alpine during heavy snowfall and increasing temperatures
- Think about any steep connected terrain and how a slab could propagate wider than expected
- Avoid similar terrain to the photos of recent avalanches (Avalanche Activity Section below)
- Look for recent natural avalanches.
- Watch for red flags: shooting cracks and collapsing (whumphing).
- Give a wide travel margin to suspect slopes, travel one-at-a-time, eyes on!
- Avoid terrain with traps and complexity.
- Use travel test pits to identify any suspect layers. Buried surface hoar is difficult to find in a snowpit without careful testing and shearing off layers.
Surface Hoar from Flower Mountain on 1/20/2022 & Buried Surface Hoar down 30cm and weak faceted layer down 100cm on 2/3/2022
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Avalanche Activity
From 1/29 to 2/1, several reports came in of recent avalanches in the alpine. The common characteristics of these slides were wide propagation, and failing 2-5ft deep at the interface below the wind slabs from last week’s atmospheric river. We have strong reason to suspect these slides occurred on a buried surface hoar layer from 1/20. They happened on all aspects, at elevations from 3000 – 5000ft, and all were in wind sheltered areas below ridges, features, and starting zones. Slide were observed in the Transitional and Lutak zones.
Weather
Forecast:
Light snowfall Thursday increased overnight. 10-16″ of new snow is expected by midday Friday with northerly outflow. Further up valley, winds are expected to switch later in the evening to the south as snow levels rise between 500ft-1000ft. A new storm Saturday evening-Sunday will likely bring an additional 1.5-2″ of precipitation (16-24″ of snow) with freezing levels remaining near 1000ft.
Seasonal Summary:
- Feb 1st brought in about 6″ of low density cold smoke powder
- Jan 27-29 brought 1.5 – 2.4″ of SWE with freezing levels near 1500ft.
- An Atmospheric river hit Jan 21-22. It brought in 2-7″ of SWE (2-5ft of snow above 2500ft, mostly rain below)
- Jan 9th-15th brought 24-48″ of new snow in the alpine, with some light rain up to 3,500ft, followed by heavier rain up to 2000ft.
- Very strong NW winds and arctic temperatures blasted the area the first week of January
- Jan 1st: New snow (20″ in Lutak, 7″ Transitional zone) buried any preserved surface hoar.
- Moderate NW winds hit exposed slopes Dec 19-20th
- Surface hoar formed on all aspects and elevations Dec 17-18th
- December brought in about 2-5 feet of snowfall (highest in Lutak zone), and a few strong NW wind events
- November brought consistent heavy snowfalls, cold weather, and SE winds
- October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts
Snow Depth [in] | Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] | Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in] | Today’s Freezing Level [ft] | Today’s Winds | Next 24-hr Snow/SWE | |
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline ** | 100″ * | 0″ / 0.00″* | 6″ / 0.20″* | 0′ – 1000′ | mod, N-S | 16″ / 1.00* |
Flower Mountain @ treeline | 72″ | 0″ / 0.00″ | 5″ / 0.20″ | 0′ | mod, N | 10″ / 0.75 “ |
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft | 26″ | 0″ / 0.00″ | 8″ / 0.20″ | 0′ | mod, N | 6″ / 0.35* |
( *star means meteorological estimate )
** The Ripinsky weather station is in need of repair, and will likely be down until Summer.
Additional Information
Safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when and how you travel. Ride rescue ready. Be prepared for an emergency. Prevent hypothermia. Carry bear spray. Winter is a high consequence environment.
Become a sustaining Haines Avalanche Center Member by clicking the poster or visiting dev.alaskasnow.org/joinHAC. Support local forecasts, observations, education and weather stations. Join a community of winter recreationalists. Benefit from collective knowledge and skills. Help keep your friends and family safe in the backcountry. Get a free limited edition mountain buff, or neck gaiter with a $50 membership (first 20 members!).
Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.
Education Video Links:
- AIARE
- How to Practice Avalanche Rescue Snowmobile Edition: https://youtu.be/2ML499MMDfM
- AK Sled Shed Motorized Learning:
- Intro: https://youtu.be/aoagKHfGkxs
- Personal Electronics in Avalanche Terrain: https://youtu.be/2Vz9S0OEyFk
- Snowmobile Macgyver Tool Kit: https://youtu.be/4WBNu_t6Bbk
- Head and Face Protection: https://youtu.be/jIzW89wOyZI
- Pre-season prep: https://youtu.be/zJmrb8cZlR4
- My Transceiver: https://youtu.be/yblaDWP7Jf8
- BCA Avalanche Safety for Snowmobilers
- How to Fix Common Snowmobile Problems in the Field: https://youtu.be/g9fiTxEvuFk
- Sleducation: Avalanche Safety for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/EWFOd_9DYb8
- Intro to Avalanche Transceivers for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/6ZLSBmsceog
- Avalanche Transceiver Trailhead Test for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/rWoXbadFBsY
- Avalanche Transceiver Searching Use Snowmobiles: https://youtu.be/w1ucyI6LMXM
- BCA Avalanche Rescue Series
- Beacon Search 101: https://youtu.be/nnHXLVA2FcE
- Avalanche Probing 101: https://youtu.be/-0_yDN5Drzw
- Avalanche Shoveling 101: https://youtu.be/dGQg9o3vAkM
- Organizing a Backcountry Rescue: https://youtu.be/gywtmukgt8s
- Post Avalanche Patient Care: https://youtu.be/9FyIeUy4wpQ
- Backcountry Evacuation: https://youtu.be/WPF-dciefL8
- Complex Multiple Burials Backup Techniques: https://youtu.be/pB6AfY2KyYo
- National Avalanche Center
- Avalanche Problems Explained: https://youtu.be/DkbnT_9-cHU
- Intro to North American Avalanche Danger Scale: https://youtu.be/r_-KpOu7tbA
Announcements
Click the +Full Forecast button below to read the details. Please submit your observations if you head out!