Valdez

Forecast Expired - 12/11/2020

Above 3,000ftModerate

1,500 to 3,000ftModerate

Below 1,500ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

The storm snow from 12/8 has been redistributed into wind slab in areas exposed to wind.  As of 12/9 this avalanche problem was not widespread.  Current conditions in our region vary, 2′ of uncohesive snow with good stability has been found north of Thompson Pass.   On Thompson Pass proper 4-8″ of four finger hard windslab that showed signs of instability was found.  Wind slabs will likely become more widespread once north winds ramp up the evening of 12/10.  A hollow drum like feel, shooting cracks and pillowed snow surfaces are all signs of windslab.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Deep Slab:

Weak basal facets exist at the ground which have shown propagation energy in stability tests as recently as 11/30.  This weak layer came alive, as our area saw a significant natural avalanche cycle 12/1-12/2 due to intense snowfall and rising temperature. For details, see avalanche activity section.  Although the hazard has significantly decreased from a few days ago, it is important to keep in mind that trigger points may exist in isolated locations such as  near rock outcroppings.  Thin areas are dangerous because a person or snow machines weight may be able to  directly stress faceted snow and cause them to fail.  Thicker areas of snowpack act as padding to this faceted snow and a person or machines weight is largely dissipated.  This avalanche problem will likely not show any signs of instability and is very difficult to predict and assess. The best way to deal with a deep slab problem is to give them time and avoid dangerous avalanche terrain.  Avoid large avalanche slopes, thin rocky areas and unsupported terrain. Previous skier’s tracks are not a sign of stability.

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

12/3- Numerous natural avalanches were observed north of Thompson Pass with many avalanches failing at the ground.  Observations were not made south of Thompson Pass.

Avalanches observed from 46 mile towards Thompson Pass:

Three Pigs: Nearly every path on the SE face ran with debris deposits stopping  in the top 1/3 of aprons, thick alders prevented slides from running full path.  These were mostly D3 avalanches.

40.5 Mile Peak: Many paths running similar to Three Pigs, with one running full path to the Tsaina river.  Mainly W-NW aspects, D3’s

Max High (Peak on the southern extent of Hippie Ridge)  had a D3 avalanche with a crown near 5500′,SW aspect.

Upper Catchers Mitt bowl E aspect, slid R4-D3 ,triggering further avalanches lower down.

The main activity noted, was on the buttresses on the east side of the pass, from Cracked Ice through North Odessey Gully.  Every buttress had significant avalanche activity originating ~4000-5000′.  Many of these failed at the ground, north – northwest aspect.   Pictures below.

School Bus and North Odyssey Gully both ran with debris in the runouts.  

 

Many other large to very large natural avalanches occurred.

 

 

 

12/2- DOT reported a natural D2.5-3 avalanche that hit the Lowe river at Snowslide Gulch.

11/30- Natural avalanche observed on 40.5 mile peak just to the South of the Shovel.  West aspect, ~4500′, crown ~200′ wide, poor light prevented further observation.  SS-N-R1-D2-U.

11/29: Natural avalanche observed on Billy Mitchell Cry babys shoulder, similar elevation as 11/16 slide but originated a couple hundred meters further west.  Released from ~4000′ with a crown length of ~ 200 meters, North aspect, ~ 37°, failed at the ground.  HS-N-R2-D2.5-G 

11/16: Natural avalanche observed on Billy Mitchell “Cry babys shoulder”.  Released from~3500′ with a crown length of ~200 meters, North aspect. This slide was triggered by recent NE wind cross loading the slope.  SS-N-R2-D2-U

11/15: Natural avalanche observed in Loveland Basin on a South aspect, down the ridge from Tones Temple.  This slide was triggered by recent NE wind loading and failed at the ground. SS-N-R1-D2-G

 

 

 

Weather

12/10- Clear skies and moderate north wind.  Gap winds are forecasted to increase the evening of 12/10.

The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Worthington Glacier.

This forecast is for use in snow safety activities and emergency
management.

                   Today        Tonight

Temp at 1000`      26 F         16 F

Temp at 3000`      15-24 F      11-23 F

Chance of precip   30%          0%

Precip amount
(above 1000 FT)    0.03 in      0.00 in

Snow amount
(above 1000 FT)    trace        0 in

Snow level         sea level    sea level

Wind 3000` ridges  NE 2-22 mph  NE 2-22 mph

Remarks...None.
Date: 12/10 24 hr snow (inches) HN24W (snow water equivalent inches) High Temp (F) Low Temp (F) Weekly SWE Inches (Monday-Sunday) December snowfall Season snowfall HS (snowpack depth inches)
Valdez 1 .1 32 10 1.66 14 58 29
Thompson Pass N/O N/O 23 14 1.22 58 176 50
46 Mile 0 0 27 -3 1.24 23 52 24

Thompson Pass weather history 20/21.  Click on links above the images to see full size view

 

November 2020

Dec 2020 through 12/3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional Information

12/5-7- Thompson Pass received 23 inches of snow with 2.23″ of SWE.  Temperatures and freezing line rose mid storm bringing rain to the coast.  

 

NE winds began 12/4 and have redistributed the storm snow onto lee aspects.  This wind event has not been widespread and appears to be concentrated to areas in close proximity to Thompson Pass.

 

November was mostly dominated by clear, cold and windy weather.  On 11/25 a major wx pattern shift occurred which produced 8 days of consecutive storms that delivered 10 inches of water and 90″ of snow to Thompson Pass.  This storm fell on a thin snowpack with poor structure near the ground.  On 12/1-12/2 a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred with many avalanches failing at the ground.  This event was caused by 4.6″ of SWE on Thompson Pass in a 72 hour period along with rising temperatures bringing the freezing line up to 3000′. 

 

Announcements

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  Human triggered avalanches are possible in terrain steeper than 32°.  The latest storm ending 12/8 has deposited up to 2 feet of new snow and has been redistributed by wind in exposed areas.  Watch for signs of instability, these include recent avalanches, shooting cracks and collapsing.  Avoid cross loaded gullies and areas that are receiving active wind loading.  

The hazard will be higher if north wind arrives earlier and stronger than forecasted.

For more information click the (+full forecast) button below.

Your observations are valuable!   If you have been out recreating in the mountains, please leave an observation.