Given the data in the weather section (below), it should be clear that we are in a major loading event, as precipitation adds stress to layers in the snowpack. Storm slabs will be 60-100cm deep (up to 200cm in some areas), and under a state of constant settlement, adjustment, and avalanching in steep areas. Further heavy precip, rain-on-snow, and further warming will only increase the size of natural avalanches, which are certain to be occurring. Some avalanches could be quite large with this storm. For reference, if we receive as much precip. as expected, that would likely be a 75-100 year storm, as per the National Weather Service. It is not out of the question to see 75-100 year avalanches as well. Avoid all avalanche terrain and lower runout zones!

In areas above treeline, depth hoar exists at the ground. There are also 2 melt-freeze crusts just above this depth hoar and in the midpack. Any of these crusts can act as a bed surface and a weak interface within the old snow. Heavy new loading above these persistent layers has increased the likelihood of triggering these layers. This will be a problem on all aspects. Be especially cautious of steep, heavily wind-loaded areas above treeline, and unsupported slopes. Convexities, where there is a steep rollover, will be a likely place to trigger a deeper slab that runs to the ground with high consequences. This kind of danger is tricky and can be hard to manage, so a wide safety margin is recommended.

(Photo from Lutak Zone, 11/15, 2500ft, NE aspect)