Haines Avalanche Center
Above 2,500ftHigh
1,500 to 2,500ftHigh
Below 1,500ftConsiderable
Degrees of Avalanche Danger
Avalanche Problems
Problem 1
The Bottom Line: Very heavy new snowfall and strong SE winds will combine today to create dangerous avalanche conditions. Human-triggered and natural avalanches are likely on wind affected layers within the new snow, and could be 2 feet deep or more. Please avoid all avalanche terrain today, including lower runout zones. Even small steep sections in the trees could be prone enough to bury a person in a terrain trap. Avalanches could step down into very large, deep slides that could run full path to hit lower runout zones in the valley bottoms.
If you head out today, Stick to forested areas and be careful to avoid any steep openings or gullies/terrain traps. In non-forested areas, keep your slope angle below 30 degrees without any steeper slopes above or adjacent to you.
Below 3000ft: Large Wet Loose and Wet Slab avalanches are likely in terrain 30 degrees and steeper. All steep slopes, gullies, and runout zones should be avoided.
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Problem 2
We should remain aware that very deep and wide destructive avalanches need to be considered and planned for accordingly. Pay attention to run-out paths and leave wide margins of safety for larger than expected slides. Terrain management is critical to avoid these slopes. An avalanche in the upper snowpack or cornice failures, within the new snow load could step down and lead to a massive avalanche.
Old Melt Layers and Crusts:
- A buried persistent weak layer about 6 feet deep (The “Big Warmup” Layer, Formed Nov 17th) is still a concern.
- It is a thick refrozen crust with weak faceted snow above. This is an unusual and unpredictable weak layer because it formed during a thaw event and then re-froze while cold temperatures faceted the stout crystals.
- A wide safety margin is necessary. This setup could produce avalanches that break wider than expected, and are most likely to be triggered from shallow trigger points like rocks or small trees. You could ride the same slope numerous times until that right spot produces a large destructive slide.
Photos of the “Big Warmup” facet layer in the Transitional Zone at 2500ft on 1/2 with test results ECTP18 that demonstrated propagation potential on this layer. And a photo from Old Faithful on 1/12 of a 5″ thick layer of facets down 170cm.
Observations in all zones throughout December and now into January have found moderate strength and quick propagation on failures within the “Big Warmup” crust/facet layer. We know it to exist at all elevations above 1000ft — even up to the highest summits. We expect this layer (and other midpack crust-facet layers) to be an ongoing issue going forward.
Depth Hoar at the Ground (Above 3,000′):
- October snow followed by long cold snaps created depth hoar at the ground in most areas. These angular snow grains are well developed into a weak layer that behaves like brittle glass.
- As the snow gets deeper, the load over this layer increases, and it could collapse. You are most likely to human-trigger this layer from shallow spots around rocks, or trees, or have a surface avalanche step down to the ground on this layer. Any slides that break to the ground are likely to be deadly.
Photos shows 6-9mm advanced depth hoar at the ground down 180cm with ECTP 25 down 80cm on facets below a crust in the Haines Pass Zone at 4,000ft on a NE-aspect.
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Avalanche Activity
Over the last 2 weeks:
In the Haines Pass, D2 N aspect ~5000ft natural slide, cornice fell and triggered slide- looked recent, failed mid second week of January. D1 W aspect ~5500ft, piece of cornice fell and triggered small slide/ sluff, potentially remotely triggered by a group.
A few natural deep slabs ran during a short period of warm weather in the Lutak zone. These isolated slides were D3+ sized, running 3-9ft deep and stepped down to the ground in spots. The largest ran on an unsupported slope above cliffs. Takhin ridge (E aspect around 3000ft) had several D2-D3 natural avalanches observed that ran about 2ft deep with very wide and complete propagation. This was in a protected basin where Surface Hoar likely grew before the last storm.
Weather
Forecast:
Intense precipitation is expected Tuesday night-Wednesday, combined with strong SE winds. Snow levels will be between 2000-3000ft, with 1.5″ of precipitation expected.
Recent Weather Summary:
- Jan 17-23 brought 3-4″ of precip (3-4feet of new snow above 3000ft), strong SE winds, and a noticeable warmup
- Surface Hoar and Near Surface Facet growth Jan 8-10
- A strong front brought 24-30″ of snow above 2000ft on Jan 2nd.
- There was widespread Surface Hoar growth on Dec 31st.
- Dec 23-26 brought 10-18″ of new snow and a sharp rise in temperatures from -10F to 30F along with variable winds
- Dec 16-23 brought strong NW winds and arctic cold temperatures
- Dec 15 brought warmth/light rain up to 2600ft
- Complete Season Histories: Transitional Zone Lutak Zone
Snow Depth | Last 24-hr Snow/SWE | Last 3-days Snow/SWE | Today’s Freezing Level | Today’s Winds | Next 24-hr Snow/SWE | |
Mount Ripinsky @ 2,500′ | 112″ | 12″ / 1.00″ | 22″ / 2.00″ | 3000′ | strong, SE | 6″ / 0.50″ |
Flower Mountain @ 2,500′ | 64″ | 8″ / 0.60″ | 11″ / 0.90″ | 2500′ | strong, SE | 6″ / 0.50″ |
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft | 47″ | 6″ / 0.50″ | 8″ / 0.70″ | 2500′ | strong, SE | 3″ / 0.30″ |
Additional Information
WEAR A HELMET! Be careful of rocks and hidden hazards. Be prepared for crevasses when on a glacier.
Are your riding companions trained and practiced in avalanche rescue? Everyone in your group needs to have a beacon, shovel, and probe, and know how to use them. Our mountains have very limited cell coverage, carry an emergency communication device and enough gear to spend the night.
Alerts
Natural and Human-triggered avalanches are likely today due to heavy rain/snow and strong south winds. Click the +Full Forecast link below for each zone to read more. If you see any recent natural avalanche activity, or debris please submit an observation.