The Bottom Line: In the Lutak zone specifically, we have not seen evidence of preserved buried surface hoar layers, and heavy rain last week has solidly refrozen the upper snowpack and increased stability. That said, there are still dangers lurking out there. Avoid thin areas above 3000ft where there may be lingering depth hoar at the ground. Also, steep gullies/couloirs/cliffy areas may contain lingering pockets of deep slab instability and could still possibly lead to a deep, deadly avalanche.

Despite the low danger, you should still exercise caution, space your group out, and only expose one person at a time to slopes 30 degrees and steeper. Be prepared for an avalanche that can break very wide, and take out all the “safe” zones on a slope. Be extra careful not to group up in places that an avalanche can reach.

Additional Considerations:

Since our last storm cycle (Jan 25th), our region has has multiple scary remote-triggered avalanches, all triggered by snowmachines in the passes, and running on buried surface hoar layers 2-6ft deep. Triggering these remains difficult, but with enough travel and weight you can definitely find a trigger point. The consequences of such a deep avalanche are going to be extremely high.

Old Melt Layers and Crusts:

• A buried persistent weak layer about 6+ feet deep (The “Big Warmup” Layer, Formed Nov 17th) is still a concern. Numerous natural avalanches observed 1/27 likely on this layer.
• A wide safety margin is necessary. This setup could produce avalanches that break wider than expected, and are most likely to be triggered from shallow trigger points like rocks or small trees. You could ride the same slope numerous times until that right spot produces a large destructive slide.

Photos of the “Big Warmup” facet layer in the Transitional Zone at 2500ft on 1/2 with test results ECTP18 that demonstrated propagation potential on this layer & Photo from Old Faithful on 1/12 of a 5″ thick layer of facets down 170cm.

Depth Hoar at the Ground (Above 3,000′):

• October snow followed by long cold snaps created depth hoar at the ground in most areas.
• You are most likely to human-trigger this layer from shallow spots around rocks, or trees, or have a surface avalanche step down to the ground on this layer. Any slides that break to the ground are likely to be deadly.

Photos shows 6-9mm advanced depth hoar at the ground down 180cm with ECTP 25 down 80cm on facets below a crust in the Haines Pass Zone at 4,000ft on a NE-aspect.