Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast Expired - 12/04/2021

Above 2,500ftConsiderable

1,500 to 2,500ftConsiderable

Below 1,500ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

Aspect: All aspects and below terrain features

Elevation: Mainly Treeline and above

 

New snow this week was about 6-14″ with strong SE winds Wednesday night! The wind calmed down and changed from SE-E to N-NW on Thursday. And intensified Friday with northerly outflow.

  • The bottom line is that sensitive surface wind slabs from moderate NW winds will be most likely for human trigger. Older, more stubborn wind slabs from strong SE winds on Wednesday will be possible, but more difficult to trigger. This reverse loading event makes route finding through safe terrain in the alpine tricky.
  • Look for active wind loading and fresh wind slab, cross-loading and top-loading.
  • Remember that even small slopes with big consequences, like terrain traps, can be hazardous.

 

Identify wind-drifted snow by looking for stiff or hollow surface snow, and looking for cracking, whumphing, natural avalanches, and or active wind loading – treat these areas as highly suspect. Probe for strong over weak layering, the recipe for an avalanche. You can find safer conditions in wind-protected areas with softer snow. 

 

Below 2,000ft warmer temps Nov. 25th caused a crust to form that has been observed in test pits. It has been buried by snowfall and wind loading over the past week. Cold temperatures will weaken this buried crust.

 

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Persistent Slab:

 

Confidence: Low-Moderate

Elevation: Between 2,500ft to 4,000ft

 

Look and listen for deep whumping! Report any natural avalanche activity on this layer!

 

One or more rain crusts from mid-October are now near the bottom of the snowpack in all zones. Weak snow above and below a crust may cause strong stubborn snow above it to fail and produce sizeable avalanche that could bury, injure or kill. Keep in mind a lot of new snow has fallen in the last 2 weeks adding stress to this layer. It will be possible to trigger an avalanche on this layer, 1 meter or deeper. We expect this October rain crust will be a lasting problem, so keep your guard up! This layer exists on all aspects, but observations are limited and uncertainty is high.

 

  • What is the best way to manage this risk? We can simply avoid alpine terrain that is about 30 degrees and steeper. Be aware that venturing on these steeper alpine slopes is relatively high risk currently. Persistent slabs require a wide safety buffer.
  • Another way to reduce your exposure to these deep weak layers would be to stick to areas of deeper snowpack (>1m deep). But be wary of hidden rocks that can act as trigger points, and thin areas around the margins of a slab.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

A large natural avalanche was reported on a west aspect near 3920 in the Lutak Zone that is visible from the highway. More information will be provided as it is received. See Persistent Slab problem.

Weather

Last week temperatures hovered near freezing in the mountains, with winds from the SE. Snowfall this week was around 6-14″. Winds switched from SE to NW and increased into typical northerly outflow as temperature plummeted into the single digits. Friday nights cold temperatures and clear skies could produce surface hoar formation in protected/sheltered areas, especially below treeline. Keep an eye out and submit an observation!

October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts. November has brought regular heavy snowfalls, adding up to 70+ inches so far. Winds have alternated between NW and SE.

 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline **   67″ *  1″ / 0.05*  3″ / 0.60*  0′  Mod, NW  0″ / 0.00*
Flower Mountain @ treeline  47″  1″ / 0.05  5″ / 0.50  0′ Mod, NW  0″ / 0.00*
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft  26.5″  1″ / 0.05  3″ / 0.15  0′ Mod, NW  0″ / 0.00*

( *star means meteorological estimate )

** The Ripinsky weather station is currently down, we will try to get it working again soon

Additional Information


Beware of deep treewells which can trap a person. It’s deep out there. Temperatures and will chill are cold. Be prepared to prevent hypothermia.


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Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.

 

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