Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast Expired - 12/16/2021

Above 2,500ftModerate

1,500 to 2,500ftModerate

Below 1,500ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

Aspect: Most likely on wind loaded aspects and features SW-S-SE-E.

Elevation: Mainly at and above treeline.

 

Strong NW winds over the last several days caused new wind slabs to build in the alpine. You will find a lot of variability out there, and loaded areas (especially below ridgelines and in couloirs/gullies) may have multiple feet of recent slabs with weak layers in between. If a wind slab is triggered there is still some potential for it to step down to deeper weak layers and cause a large avalanche.

 

Identify wind-drifted snow by looking for stiff or hollow surface snow, and looking for cracking, whumphing and blowing snow – treat these areas as highly suspect. You can find safer conditions in wind-protected areas with softer snow. 

 

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Persistent Slab:

Aspect: All aspects.

Elevation: All Elevations.

 

Cold weather will only serve to weaken buried layers. The persistent slab danger is not healing, it is standing by waiting for the right trigger. Don’t be the trigger!

Recent stress tests have unearthed layers of concern that have propagation propensity and the potential to step down into deeper layers of the snowpack.

Persistent avalanche problems are tricky. The question is: When will stress over-ride strength and cause a slab to fail?

  • Cold temperatures Dec. 3-5 created weak snow at the surface that is buried in many places under a strong wind slab in the upper snowpack.
  • Over a meter deep: old weak layers are buried and difficult to trigger but still reactive.
  • Toward the very bottom: early season snowfalls and crusts linger and are very difficult to trigger but are still of concern.

 

It is still possible that any surface avalanches could step down to deeper weak layers, the October rain crust, or even the ground in alpine areas. 

 

  • One of the best ways to reduce your exposure to deeper persistent weak layers would be to stick to areas of deeper snowpack (>1m deep). But be wary of hidden rocks that can act as trigger points, and thin areas around the margins of a slab.
  • Manage the terrain by only exposing one person at a time to the hazard, use group up spots well out of harms way, and carry radios for communication.
  • Look and listen for whumping, and other signs of instability. Report any natural avalanche activity on these deeper layers.

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

This natural avalanche occurred on Dec 11th on Old Faithful during the recent wind event. It ran on a cross-loaded NE aspect at 3200ft, running on the October rain crust. It shows that given a heavy new load, this persistent weak layer can activate and cause a large avalanche.

Weather

The NW winds will decrease today, and clouds increase as a quick shot of light snow comes in by tonight.

  • A strong NW wind event began on Saturday, causing active wind loading
  • Early December has brought in about 2-4 feet of snowfall
  • November brought consistent heavy snowfalls, cold weather, and SE winds
  • October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts
 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline **   65″  0″ / 0.0*  0″ / 0.0*  0′  light, NW  2″ / 0.10*
Flower Mountain @ treeline  46″  0″ / 0.00  0″ / 0.0*  0′  light, NW  1″ / 0.05*
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft  20″  0″ / 0.00  0″ / 0.0*  0′  light, NW  0″ / 0.00*

( *star means meteorological estimate )

** The Ripinsky weather station is in need of repair, and will likely be down until Summer.

Additional Information


Be prepared for an emergency and hypothermia. Winter is a high consequence environment. Carry bear spray.


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Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.

 

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