Valdez

Forecast Expired - 12/19/2020

Above 3,000ftConsiderable

1,500 to 3,000ftConsiderable

Below 1,500ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

Thompson Pass has been receiving strong north winds beginning the afternoon of 12/17.  Sustained wind speeds of 60 mph and gusts to 65 mph have been recorded.  Prior to 12/17 there was up to a foot of loose snow available for transport that will provide the ammunition for winds to build slabs around 2 feet in depth on lee aspects (SE-NW).  These slabs will likely be sensitive to human triggers on 12/18. The last week of benign weather has formed Surface hoar north of Thompson Pass below 3000′ and near surface facets above that.  These are weak layers that will make wind slabs more susceptible to human trigger.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Persistent Slab:

Surface Hoar has been observed north of Thompson Pass below 3000′.  This layer has been buried by light snow beginning 12/14 and may be preserved in areas that do not see significant wind 12/17-12/18.  Near surface facets have also been observed into higher elevations.  As of now this avalanche problem is unlikely to come alive, as there is insufficient new snow to overcome this layer.  In isolated locations recent winds may redistribute new snow onto this preserved layer of buried surface hoar and create pockets of wind slab.

 This layer will not have widespread distribution.  In areas like Thompson Pass that generally see strong winds surface hoar was knocked down and destroyed before being buried.  Buried surface hoar will exist in protected areas north of Thompson Pass below 3000′. The distribution of this layer is unknown in the Port of Valdez region.  This layer is unlikely to be reactive 12/18 but the hazard will be increasing through the week as our area is forecasted to receive additional snow accumulations.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

12/3- Numerous natural avalanches were observed north of Thompson Pass with many avalanches failing at the ground.  Observations were not made south of Thompson Pass.

Avalanches observed from 46 mile towards Thompson Pass:

Three Pigs: Nearly every path on the SE face ran with debris deposits stopping  in the top 1/3 of aprons, thick alders prevented slides from running full path.  These were mostly D3 avalanches.

40.5 Mile Peak: Many paths running similar to Three Pigs, with one running full path to the Tsaina river.  Mainly W-NW aspects, D3’s

Max High (Peak on the southern extent of Hippie Ridge)  had a D3 avalanche with a crown near 5500′,SW aspect.

Upper Catchers Mitt bowl E aspect, slid R4-D3 ,triggering further avalanches lower down.

The main activity noted, was on the buttresses on the east side of the pass, from Cracked Ice through North Odessey Gully.  Every buttress had significant avalanche activity originating ~4000-5000′.  Many of these failed at the ground, north – northwest aspect.   Pictures below.

School Bus and North Odyssey Gully both ran with debris in the runouts.  

 

Many other large to very large natural avalanches occurred.

 

 

 

12/2- DOT reported a natural D2.5-3 avalanche that hit the Lowe river at Snowslide Gulch.

11/30- Natural avalanche observed on 40.5 mile peak just to the South of the Shovel.  West aspect, ~4500′, crown ~200′ wide, poor light prevented further observation.  SS-N-R1-D2-U.

11/29: Natural avalanche observed on Billy Mitchell Cry babys shoulder, similar elevation as 11/16 slide but originated a couple hundred meters further west.  Released from ~4000′ with a crown length of ~ 200 meters, North aspect, ~ 37°, failed at the ground.  HS-N-R2-D2.5-G 

11/16: Natural avalanche observed on Billy Mitchell “Cry babys shoulder”.  Released from~3500′ with a crown length of ~200 meters, North aspect. This slide was triggered by recent NE wind cross loading the slope.  SS-N-R2-D2-U

11/15: Natural avalanche observed in Loveland Basin on a South aspect, down the ridge from Tones Temple.  This slide was triggered by recent NE wind loading and failed at the ground. SS-N-R1-D2-G

 

 

 

Weather

12/18- North winds will begin to diminish through the day with minor snow accumulations expected.

The Thompson Pass Mountain Forecast covers the mountains (above
1000 ft) surrounding Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass to
Worthington Glacier.

This forecast is for use in snow safety activities and emergency
management.

                   Today        Tonight

Temp at 1000`      17-23 F      9-15 F

Temp at 3000`      5-18 F       17-23 F

Chance of precip   60%          60%

Precip amount
(above 1000 FT)    0.15 in      0.09 in

Snow amount
(above 1000 FT)    1-3 in       0-1 in

Snow level         sea level    sea level

Wind 3000` ridges  NE 4-36 mph  E 1-25 mph

Remarks...Blizzard Warning remains in effect until noon today.
Date: 12/18 24 hr snow (inches) HN24W (snow water equivalent inches) High Temp (F) Low Temp (F) Weekly SWE Inches (Monday-Sunday) December snowfall Season snowfall HS (snowpack depth inches)
Valdez Trace 0 27 21 .24 18 62 31
Thompson Pass N/O N/O 6 0 .04 64 184 47
46 Mile 2 0.3 10 4 .3 25 54 22

Thompson Pass weather history 20/21.  Click on links above the images to see full size view

 

November 2020

TP as of 12/14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Additional Information

 

12/13-12/16-  Light snow has been falling and has landed on surface hoar below 3000′.  This layer exists north and possibly south of Thompson Pass.  On Thompson Pass proper, buried surface hoar is unlikely due to wind.  So far there is an insignificant amount of snow to overload these layers and create dangerous conditions.  This will be a layer to watch below 3000′ once more snow accumulates, possibly by this weekend.  If you have observed surface hoar in the Port of Valdez area leave an observation.

12/8-12/12- Clear cold and calm was the theme during this period.  With this, surface hoar has begun to form below 3000′.  On 12/12 surface hoar was found to exist up to 1.5 cm in length on flat benches.  On slopes the size was 2-4 mm.  SH has not been observed in high elevation start zones.  If conditions remain calm before the next snowfall this will form a sensitive layer in our snowpack in our low and mid elevation bands.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12/5-12/7- Thompson Pass received 23 inches of snow with 2.23″ of SWE.  Temperatures and freezing line rose mid storm bringing rain to the coast.  

 

 

NE winds began 12/4 and have redistributed the storm snow onto lee aspects.  This wind event has not been widespread and appears to be concentrated to areas in close proximity to Thompson Pass.

 

November was mostly dominated by clear, cold and windy weather.  On 11/25 a major wx pattern shift occurred which produced 8 days of consecutive storms that delivered 10 inches of water and 90″ of snow to Thompson Pass.  This storm fell on a thin snowpack with poor structure near the ground.  On 12/1-12/2 a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred with many avalanches failing at the ground.  This event was caused by 4.6″ of SWE on Thompson Pass in a 72 hour period along with rising temperatures bringing the freezing line up to 3000′. 

 

Announcements

The avalanche hazard is Considerable at mid and upper elevations.  Human triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible.  The area directly surrounding Thompson Pass will be the most avalanche prone area 12/18, due to strong winds that are occurring there.  In areas that are still protected from the latest wind the hazard will be lower.  It will be possible to trigger windslab avalanches up to 2 feet deep on lee aspects (SE-NW).  Watch for signs of fresh windslab including, pillowed snow surfaces, shooting cracks and areas where surface snow becomes significantly deeper over a short distance.  Today is an elevated hazard day, use caution if traveling in the mountains and avoid terrain traps and cross loaded gullies.

For more information click the (+full forecast) button below.

Your observations are valuable!   If you have been out recreating in the mountains, please leave an observation.