On 12/1 windslabs showed signs of instability with moderate propagation in snow pits 10-12 inches in depth. Additional signs of instability included a large collapse and shooting cracks on the lee side of terrain features.  Northeast winds are forecasted to increase 12/2 with gusts to 40 mph possible.  This uptick in winds will increase the depth of wind slabs and sensitivity to human triggers.  In most locations these windslabs will overly faceted snow, this will make them more sensitive, and allow them to be reactive longer than normal.     Watch for signs of wind slab including: hard snow over soft, shooting cracks, pillowed snow surfaces and a hollow drum like sound. Avoid travel on or below large wind loaded slopes that are steeper than 32° .  Avoid traveling in or above terrain traps. It is possible for the hazard to increase through the day if winds become stronger and more widespread than forecasted.

The cold and dry weather in November caused a lot of faceting to occur in the snow, creating a weak snowpack.  At this point it is unclear as to how much stress our snowpack will be able to withstand before failing.  In protected areas, it is unlikely that the 5-10″ of new snow will be enough to tip the scales naturally.  Although, where wind has loaded the new snow into deeper slabs it is possible that avalanches either natural or human triggered could step down to these weak layers creating larger more dangerous avalanches.  While early season conditions exist, snowpack structure will vary from place to place.  Don’t expect to find the same snow stability across the forecast area. Re-assess the snowpack every time you are traveling to a new location.