Valdez

Forecast Expired - 03/14/2021

Above 3,000ftConsiderable

1,500 to 3,000ftModerate

Below 1,500ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

The storm snow from March 9-11 is now being transported by strong NE winds. Wind loads below high, leeward ridgelines are to be expected. These wind slabs may have high energy and are likely to to be triggered by human activity. Avoid them if possible.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Persistent Slab:

Februarys’ cold and dry weather caused faceting to occur in our snowpack. There is a lot of variability in our forecast area, but generally as you move north, poorer structure exists. 1-2 mm near surface facets exist underneath the 2/1 windboard. This layer of windboard varies in depth, thickness and hardness through the range, but in many areas is 2 feet down, up to a foot thick and pencil hard. Faceted snow beneath this wind affected snow is very difficult to affect due to its thickness and density, but could be triggered from thin areas of the slab, with large loads or changing weather. At this point triggering an avalanche at this layer is unlikely, but may reactivate as the season moves on and the windboard breaks down allowing a persons weight to penetrate the layer or as heat pushes deeper into the snowpack.

It will be important to keep an eye on these layers once precipitation returns to our area. The most likely areas to affect deeper persistent slab avalanches will be in the Continental zone, in rocky terrain where a thinner/more faceted snowpack exists. Careful snowpack assessment is necessary while traveling in the Continental zone.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Weather

Detailed forecast for
Northeast Prince William Sound
Tonight: Clear. Lows around 5 above except around 5 below through the pass. Northeast wind 15 to 30 mph except northeast 50 to 60 mph through the pass.
Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 20s except around 5 above through the pass. Northeast wind 15 to 30 mph. Through the pass… North wind 50 to 60 mph decreasing to 45 to 55 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night: Clear. Lows around 5 above except around 5 below through the pass. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with a chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 20s except around 15 through the pass. Variable wind to 10 mph.