Colder air and clouds arriving from the north will limit the amount of wet loose activity that occurs to low elevations where high temperatures are expected to go above the freezing mark.  Overall temperatures today are expected to be below seasonal averages, which will allow the spring shed process to go on hold today at mid-upper elevations.

Expect to encounter warm snow that is capable of producing wet loose avalanches at low elevations on south and west aspects, especially if the sun is able to break through the clouds today.  This avalanche problem is easy to assess, pay attention to the moisture in the surface snow.  In areas where the the surface is moist -wet more than 6 inches deep, wet loose activity is possible-likely on steep terrain especially near rocks.

The sensitivity of persistent weak layers beneath the April settled storm snow has been decreasing over the last few days.  Lower temperatures, cloud cover and  a lack of stress on the upper snowpack today creates a low likelihood scenario for human triggered persistent slab avalanches.  Unlikely doesn’t mean impossible.  The areas where a persistent slab could be triggered today include upper elevation north facing terrain where settled storm snow depths are  greater than 1 foot.  Assesment of the interface beneath the settled storm snow is encouraged if traveling in steep and or consequential terrain on shaded upper elevations.

Widespread surface hoar up to 1 cm has been observed and reported at upper elevations.  This will be a future weak layer if it is not disturbed by wind prior to the snow that is forecasted this upcoming week.

This may be the last problem on the list and least likely to encounter, but it is the most dangerous one.   There have been 2 reports in the last week of cornice fall causing very large persistent slabs to full depth avalanches (see avalanche activity section).  Avoiding traveling on or exposing yourself to cornices is highly recommended.  Lower temperatures and cloud cover will decrease the possibilty for cornice fall today.

Weak snow exists at the base of our snowpack.  On 4/15 our area saw the first deep slab activity occur since late February.  This occurred on Meteorite (see avalanche activity section) and was a cornice fall that triggered a series of step down avalanches that eventually stepped down to the ground.  This is a clear indication that large triggers can have an affect on depth hoar.  Increasing temperatures could produce more significant activity later in the season while our snowpack is undergoing a transition from a winter snowpack to a spring one.  

This problem is very difficult to assess due its depth and the fact that signs of instability will likely not be present.  You can stack the odds in your favor by avoiding steep terrain that is undergoing rapid changes such as strong solar and avoiding exposure to large triggers such as cornices.