Buried surface hoar exists around 2 feet deep in the intermountain and continental zones.  Stability tests have not produced propagation at this layer the last 2 days although multiple large natural and artillery triggered avalanches have occurred during the most recent storm.  It initially appears that this layer is no longer intact widespread, but may remain reactive in specific areas.  This makes for a dangerous setup where assessment is not simple.  Signs of instability may not exist even when dangerous conditions are present.  Digging snowpits is the most effective way to identify where this layer is present and its sensitivity.   Although, this can be a difficult assessment tool due to spatial variability (conditions that vary from place to place) and results that may be confusing or misleading.

Currently our goals in the mountains should directly correlate to our experience with snowpack assessment.  The weak layer we are dealing with is notorious for remaining for long periods of time.

 It is possible that the warm temps and weight of the most recent storm has compressed this layer, allowing it to round (heal) and be absorbed into the snow beneath.  This outcome is unclear at this point and we are maintaining the stance that a potentially dangerous weak layer exists, until we can gather more information.

Weak snow exists near the base of our snowpack in all three climate zones.  The weather we have experienced the last 3 days has increased the stress upon this weak snow.   The likelihood of deep human triggered avalanches has gone from unlikely to possible.  This layer will be difficult to directly affect by a person or machine but a persistent slab avalanche (see problem 1)  may be able to step down to deep layers in our snowpack.  DOT avalanche mitigation efforts did just this on the buttress to the east of nicks, showing that it is still possible for deep layers to produce avalanches.