Haines Avalanche Center
Above 2,500ftConsiderable
1,500 to 2,500ftConsiderable
Below 1,500ftModerate
The Avy Rose shows the forecasted danger by elevation and aspect. It adds more detail about where you are likely to find the dangers mentioned in the forecast. The inner circle shows upper elevations (mountain top), the second circle is middle elevations, and the outer circle represents lower elevations. Think of the Rose as a birds-eye view of a mountain, looking down from above. The rose allows our forecasters to visually show you which parts of the mountain they are most concerned about.
Degrees of Avalanche Danger
Avalanche Problems
Problem 1
Aspect: All mainly N-NW-W
Elevation: Near and Above Treeline
Bottom Line: Two interfaces exist in the upper snowpack layers: 1) The 3/19-3/20 layer that was buried under recent 16-18” of snowfall earlier this week, combined with moderate to strong S-SE-E winds. This first interface is located specifically on N-NW-W aspects due to wind loading remains reactive and likely for human triggers. 2) The deeper 3/4-3/11 layer that is now buried under 3-4’+ of snow. It is located on a variety of aspects due to a mix of smooth to rough old snow surfaces from early March’s cold, clear and windy weather. This layer remains stubborn and possible for human triggers. Warming daytime temperatures combined with settlement this week could produce hard slabs that are difficult to predict and require the right trigger point. Avoid being that trigger!
Travel Advice:
- Identify and avoid shallow areas including trigger points around rocks, cliffs, and trees!!
- Look for shooting cracks, whumphing or collapsing that indicate a stiffer slab over weaker snow.
- Avoid terrain trap areas such as cliffs and gullies, and areas where it is hard to escape off to the side.
- Stick to slopes less steep than 30-degrees while in the alpine. If you choose to venture onto steeper slopes, carefully evaluate them by digging, probing, and testing them.
- Hard wind slabs can break above you, take into consideration extra safety margins.
- Persistent slabs are unpredictable, don’t get surprised. Gather information to help confirm suspicions and make assessments.
- Probe and feel for slabs underneath you.
- Think about the consequences of a wide hard slab breaking before you commit to a slope. How can you avoid triggering an avalanche? What is your plan if one is triggered? Always reduce your exposure to these risks as much as possible. Travel one-at-a-time in avalanche terrain, and only group up in safe areas, with a wide safety margin.
Additional Consideration:
- We believe deep persistent layers are currently dormant. However, you could still trigger a deeper persistent slab in thin or shallow snow, even if we haven’t had recent feedback or avalanche activity.
- With the beginning of March comes a higher sun angle than we have seen for the last couple months. Surface warming will begin to be prevalent on solar days, especially around exposed rocks and creating thin and/or weak spots where you could trigger these deeper layers.
- A variety of wind loading patterns throughout the season have created sizeable cornices on all aspects near mountain tops and ridgelines. Beware that cornices can break much further back than expect, can trigger deeper persistent weak layers and are sensitive to warming, temperature changes and direct sunlight.
- Remember that persistent slabs are unpredictable and that tests and observations can be unreliable. A probe can be very helpful to determine snow depth and presence of deeper buried weak layers by noting resistance as the probe moves through the snow.
- Continue to utilize safe travel protocol, wide margins of safety, and collect more information when it comes to entering committing terrain.
- Loose snow avalanches over terrain features will be amplified by direct sunlight and increasing temperatures during the day, avoid overhead hazard by utilizing timing.
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Problem 2
Aspect: All
Elevation: Near and Above Treeline
Bottom Line: Recent wind loading earlier this week has built cornices along N-NW-W aspects that may be likely to human triggering and possible to occur naturally. With a long winter of various loading directions, cornices have built on all aspects. This unique avalanche problem is less predictable than most and does not have solid tests and observations to better understand likelihood of release. Major factors that do contribute to cornice fall are strong solar radiation, increasing temperatures and recent wind events. Those three have been present this week and as the angle of the sun increases, fragile and sensitive cornices that have hung on all winter may finally begin to break down and fail. Cornice failure can also result in a heavy trigger for slopes below, especially with a persistent slab problem.
Travel Advice:
- Avoid traveling along or underneath corniced ridgelines.
- Due to multiple wind directions, cornices may be present on both sides of a ridgeline.
- Look for signs of drooping cornices from the sun, increasing temperature, or recent wind loading.
- Understand cornices often break further back onto ridge tops than expected.
- Observers may underestimate sun’s effect on the back of cornices when traveling on cool, shaded aspects.
- Cornice fall chunks may not look large but have significant mass and can be destructive or trigger slope below.
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Avalanche Activity
3/21-26/2022 – Due to the low visibility earlier in the week it is uncertain when exactly these occurred. A variety of natural slides were observed 3/26 with the majority of D2+ slabs mostly within the new snow that fell and was wind loaded on N-NW-W aspects 3/21-22 30-60cm+ deep. These avalanches mostly occurred below terrain features, ridgelines, or cornices. One slide was reported to have stepped down to the early March bed surface. Small cornice failure were also reported along with loose dry/wet avalanches and reactive slope cuts.
3/5-7/2022 – Numerous D1-D2 natural and human triggered activity 2-12″+ deep were reported on multiple aspects above treeline.
From 3/3, Wind slab on SE aspect at 2500ft, numerous reports of natural and human triggered wind slabs on multiple aspects above treeline 5-30cm deep from 3/3 – 3/9 as the wind direction switched direction from south to north.
From 1/29 to 2/1, several reports came in of recent avalanches in the alpine. The common characteristics of these slides were wide propagation, and failing 2-5ft deep at the interface below the wind slabs from last week’s atmospheric river. We have strong reason to suspect these slides occurred on a buried surface hoar layer from 1/20. They happened on all aspects, at elevations from 3000 – 5000ft, and all were in wind sheltered areas below ridges, features, and starting zones. Slide were observed in the Transitional and Lutak zones.
4Winds zone. SW. 4000-5000′
Near Mt. Kraus
The confluence of the Boundary and Saksaia glaciers above Glacier Creek. N. ~4700′
Weather
Forecast:
Clear and calm weather continues for today. A few scattered clouds will turn to another bluebird day. Temperatures range from the low 20s to low 30s as the diurnal temperature pattern continues. Light northwest winds switching to southeast in the afternoon. Freezing level at 500′.
Seasonal Summary:
- March 21-22nd precipitation totaled 0.5 – 1.5″ of SWE with higher totals in transitional zone. SE-E winds were moderate gusting to strong and freezing levels ~1500′.
- March 1th-17th precipitation totals of 1-1.5″ SWE snow levels up to 2,000′ with south to north winds
- March 3rd-7th reverse loading event with south winds, then north winds, continued diurnal temps.
- Feb 28th-March 4th saw diurnal temperature swings followed by light accumulations of 2-4″.
- Feb 16-19th light snow 3-4″ with freezing levels reaching 1,500′ with strong south winds.
- Feb 12-14th had freeze/thaw cycles that locked up the snowpack to ~4,000′.
- Feb 5th-9th brought snow levels near 3,500ft, and 2.5-4″ of SWE with strong south winds.
- Feb 1st-4th brought in 12-24″ of low density powder.
- Jan 27-29 brought 1.5 – 2.4″ of SWE with freezing levels near 1500ft.
- An Atmospheric river hit Jan 21-22. It brought in 2-7″ of SWE (2-5ft of snow above 2500ft, mostly rain below)
- Jan 9th-15th brought 24-48″ of new snow in the alpine, with some light rain up to 3,500ft, followed by heavier rain up to 2000ft.
- Very strong NW winds and arctic temperatures blasted the area the first week of January.
- Jan 1st: New snow (20″ in Lutak, 7″ Transitional zone) buried any preserved surface hoar.
- Moderate NW winds hit exposed slopes Dec 19-20th.
- Surface hoar formed on all aspects and elevations Dec 17-18th.
- December brought in about 2-5 feet of snowfall (highest in Lutak zone), and a few strong NW wind events.
- November brought consistent heavy snowfalls, cold weather, and SE winds.
- October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts.
Snow Depth [in] | Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] | Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in] | Today’s Freezing Level [ft] | Today’s Winds | Next 24-hr Snow/SWE | |
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline ** | 145″* | 0″ / 0.0″* | 2” / 0.2″* | 500′ | Light, NW | 0″ / 0.0”* |
Flower Mountain @ treeline | 88″ | 0″ /0.0″ | 6″ / 0.6″ | 400′ | Light, NW | 0″ / 0.0″ |
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft | 47″ | 0” / 0.0” | 1” / 0.1” | 400′ | Moderate, NW | 0″ / 0.0” |
( *star means meteorological estimate )
** The Ripinsky weather station is in need of repair, and will likely be down until Summer. Make a donation to the Haines Avalanche Center for next season here.
Additional Information
Safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when and how you travel. Ride rescue ready. Be prepared for an emergency. Prevent hypothermia. Carry bear spray. Winter is a high consequence environment.
Become a sustaining Haines Avalanche Center Member by clicking the poster or visiting dev.alaskasnow.org/joinHAC. Support local forecasts, observations, education and weather stations. Join a community of winter recreationalists. Benefit from collective knowledge and skills. Help keep your friends and family safe in the backcountry. Get a free limited edition mountain buff, or neck gaiter with a $50 membership (first 20 members!).
Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.
Education Video Links:
- AIARE
- How to Practice Avalanche Rescue Snowmobile Edition: https://youtu.be/2ML499MMDfM
- AK Sled Shed Motorized Learning:
- Intro: https://youtu.be/aoagKHfGkxs
- Personal Electronics in Avalanche Terrain: https://youtu.be/2Vz9S0OEyFk
- Snowmobile Macgyver Tool Kit: https://youtu.be/4WBNu_t6Bbk
- Head and Face Protection: https://youtu.be/jIzW89wOyZI
- Pre-season prep: https://youtu.be/zJmrb8cZlR4
- My Transceiver: https://youtu.be/yblaDWP7Jf8
- BCA Avalanche Safety for Snowmobilers
- How to Fix Common Snowmobile Problems in the Field: https://youtu.be/g9fiTxEvuFk
- Sleducation: Avalanche Safety for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/EWFOd_9DYb8
- Intro to Avalanche Transceivers for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/6ZLSBmsceog
- Avalanche Transceiver Trailhead Test for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/rWoXbadFBsY
- Avalanche Transceiver Searching Use Snowmobiles: https://youtu.be/w1ucyI6LMXM
- BCA Avalanche Rescue Series
- Beacon Search 101: https://youtu.be/nnHXLVA2FcE
- Avalanche Probing 101: https://youtu.be/-0_yDN5Drzw
- Avalanche Shoveling 101: https://youtu.be/dGQg9o3vAkM
- Organizing a Backcountry Rescue: https://youtu.be/gywtmukgt8s
- Post Avalanche Patient Care: https://youtu.be/9FyIeUy4wpQ
- Backcountry Evacuation: https://youtu.be/WPF-dciefL8
- Complex Multiple Burials Backup Techniques: https://youtu.be/pB6AfY2KyYo
- National Avalanche Center
- Avalanche Problems Explained: https://youtu.be/DkbnT_9-cHU
- Intro to North American Avalanche Danger Scale: https://youtu.be/r_-KpOu7tbA
Announcements
Spring time is exciting, but remember to keep your stoke in check and in line with the weather and avalanche conditions. Look for whumphing, cracking and natural avalanches. Avoid slopes with strong solar radiation, wind loading, increasing temperatures and cornices. Click the +Full Forecast button below to read the details. Please submit your observations if you head out!