Haines Avalanche Center
Above 2,500ftHigh
1,500 to 2,500ftConsiderable
Below 1,500ftModerate
The Avy Rose shows the forecasted danger by elevation and aspect. It adds more detail about where you are likely to find the dangers mentioned in the forecast. The inner circle shows upper elevations (mountain top), the second circle is middle elevations, and the outer circle represents lower elevations. Think of the Rose as a birds-eye view of a mountain, looking down from above. The rose allows our forecasters to visually show you which parts of the mountain they are most concerned about.
Degrees of Avalanche Danger
Avalanche Problems
Problem 1
Aspect: N-NW-W
Elevation: Tree Line and above
Bottom Line: Moderate to strong S-SE-E winds with 16-20″ of new snow from 3/21-22 has top loaded and cross loaded slopes greater than 30 degrees on N-NW-W aspects. Wind loaded aspects, especially terrain features below ridge tops, peaks, gullies, aprons, bowls and openings in the trees should be avoided. It is important to realize that wind deposited zones could be thin at the edges around trigger points like rocks and cliffs, while the majority of loaded snow in the middle is deep and destructive. Human triggered avalanches are very likely while natural avalanches are likely. Very dangerous conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Travel Advice:
- Look for blowing or drifting snow or rapid loading.
- Avoid slopes with textured surfaces, suspect loading, or pockets of wind slab.
- Identify and avoid shallow areas including trigger points around rocks, cliffs, and trees.
- Understand wind slabs can break in shallow spots and propagate deeper.
- Look, listen and feel for shooting cracks, collapses and hollow sounds.
- Avoid terrain trap areas such as cliffs and gullies, and areas where it is hard to escape off to the side.
Additional Consideration:
- We believe deeper persistent layers are currently dormant. However, you could still trigger a deeper persistent slab in thin or shallow snow even if we haven’t had recent feedback or avalanche activity.
- With the beginning of March comes a higher sun angle than we have seen for the last couple months. Surface warming will begin to be prevalent on solar days, especially around exposed rocks and creating thin and/or weak spots where you could trigger these deeper layers.
- A variety of wind loading patterns throughout the season have created sizeable cornices on all aspects near mountain tops and ridgelines. Beware that cornices can break much further back than expect, can trigger deeper persistent weak layers and are sensitive to warming, temperature changes and direct sunlight.
- Remember that persistent slabs are unpredictable and that tests and observations can be unreliable. A probe can be very helpful to determine snow depth and presence of deeper buried weak layers by noting resistance as the probe moves through the snow.
- Continue to utilize safe travel protocol, wide margins of safety, and collect more information when it comes to entering committing terrain.
- Loose snow avalanches over terrain features will be amplified by direct sunlight and increasing temperatures during the day, avoid overhead hazard by utilizing timing.
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Problem 2
Aspect: All
Elevation: Near and Above Treeline
Bottom Line: Recent snow deposits and wind loading sit over a variety of old snow surfaces from earlier in the month. These include solar aspects with sun or temperature crusts, soft weak facets on sheltered slopes and blasted hard patches from south and north winds. Overnight settlement of this week’s snow and warming daytime temperatures stress buried weak layers and stiffen the overlying slab. This could increase the reactivity of triggering a persistent slab. Human triggered avalanches are possible while natural avalanches are unlikely. Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.
Travel Advice:
- Think about the consequences of a wide hard slab breaking before you commit to a slope. How can you avoid triggering an avalanche? What is your plan if one is triggered? Always reduce your exposure to these risks as much as possible. Travel one-at-a-time in avalanche terrain, and only group up in safe areas, with a wide safety margin.
- Stick to slopes less steep than 30-degrees while in the alpine. If you choose to venture onto steeper slopes, carefully evaluate them by digging, probing, and testing them.
- Look for shooting cracks, whumphing or collapsing that indicate a stiffer slab over weaker snow.
- Hard wind slabs can break above you, take into consideration extra safety margins.
- Remote triggers are possible to common, even from flat terrain. Give runout zones a wide berth.
- Persistent slabs are unpredictable, don’t get surprised. Gather information to help confirm suspicions and make assessments.
- Probe and feel for slabs underneath you.
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Avalanche Activity
3/5-7/2022 – Numerous D1-D2 natural and human triggered activity 2-12″+ deep were reported on multiple aspects above treeline.
From 3/3, Wind slab on SE aspect at 2500ft, numerous reports of natural and human triggered wind slabs on multiple aspects above treeline 5-30cm deep from 3/3 – 3/9 as the wind direction switched direction from south to north.
From 1/29 to 2/1, several reports came in of recent avalanches in the alpine. The common characteristics of these slides were wide propagation, and failing 2-5ft deep at the interface below the wind slabs from last week’s atmospheric river. We have strong reason to suspect these slides occurred on a buried surface hoar layer from 1/20. They happened on all aspects, at elevations from 3000 – 5000ft, and all were in wind sheltered areas below ridges, features, and starting zones. Slide were observed in the Transitional and Lutak zones.
4Winds zone. SW. 4000-5000′
Near Mt. Kraus
The confluence of the Boundary and Saksaia glaciers above Glacier Creek. N. ~4700′
Weather
Forecast:
Very light precipitation is forecasted with a chance of clearing and sunshine later in the day. Winds light-moderate from the southeast to east persist. Temperatures continue to push freezing levels around 1500′ during the day with better diurnal temperatures swings by Saturday. Mountain temperatures in the low twenties overnight and upper twenties to near freezing during the day.
Seasonal Summary:
- March 21-22nd precipitation totaled 0.5 – 1.5″ of SWE with higher totals in transitional zone. SE-E winds were moderate gusting to strong and freezing levels ~1500′.
- March 1th-17th precipitation totals of 1-1.5″ SWE snow levels up to 2,000′ with south to north winds
- March 3rd-7th reverse loading event with south winds, then north winds, continued diurnal temps.
- Feb 28th-March 4th saw diurnal temperature swings followed by light accumulations of 2-4″.
- Feb 16-19th light snow 3-4″ with freezing levels reaching 1,500′ with strong south winds.
- Feb 12-14th had freeze/thaw cycles that locked up the snowpack to ~4,000′.
- Feb 5th-9th brought snow levels near 3,500ft, and 2.5-4″ of SWE with strong south winds.
- Feb 1st-4th brought in 12-24″ of low density powder.
- Jan 27-29 brought 1.5 – 2.4″ of SWE with freezing levels near 1500ft.
- An Atmospheric river hit Jan 21-22. It brought in 2-7″ of SWE (2-5ft of snow above 2500ft, mostly rain below)
- Jan 9th-15th brought 24-48″ of new snow in the alpine, with some light rain up to 3,500ft, followed by heavier rain up to 2000ft.
- Very strong NW winds and arctic temperatures blasted the area the first week of January.
- Jan 1st: New snow (20″ in Lutak, 7″ Transitional zone) buried any preserved surface hoar.
- Moderate NW winds hit exposed slopes Dec 19-20th.
- Surface hoar formed on all aspects and elevations Dec 17-18th.
- December brought in about 2-5 feet of snowfall (highest in Lutak zone), and a few strong NW wind events.
- November brought consistent heavy snowfalls, cold weather, and SE winds.
- October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts.
Snow Depth [in] | Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] | Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in] | Today’s Freezing Level [ft] | Today’s Winds | Next 24-hr Snow/SWE | |
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline ** | 145″* | 1″ / 0.1″* | 4” / 0.5″* | 2000′ | Light, SE | 1″ / 0.1”* |
Flower Mountain @ treeline | 93″ | 1″ /0.1″ | 16″ / 1.8″ | 1600′ | Light, E | 1″ / 0.1″ |
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft | 48″ | 0.5” / 0.05” | 6” / 0.7” | 1200′ | Light, E | 0.5″ / 0.05” |
( *star means meteorological estimate )
** The Ripinsky weather station is in need of repair, and will likely be down until Summer. Make a donation to the Haines Avalanche Center for next season here.
Additional Information
Safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when and how you travel. Ride rescue ready. Be prepared for an emergency. Prevent hypothermia. Carry bear spray. Winter is a high consequence environment.
Become a sustaining Haines Avalanche Center Member by clicking the poster or visiting dev.alaskasnow.org/joinHAC. Support local forecasts, observations, education and weather stations. Join a community of winter recreationalists. Benefit from collective knowledge and skills. Help keep your friends and family safe in the backcountry. Get a free limited edition mountain buff, or neck gaiter with a $50 membership (first 20 members!).
Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.
Education Video Links:
- AIARE
- How to Practice Avalanche Rescue Snowmobile Edition: https://youtu.be/2ML499MMDfM
- AK Sled Shed Motorized Learning:
- Intro: https://youtu.be/aoagKHfGkxs
- Personal Electronics in Avalanche Terrain: https://youtu.be/2Vz9S0OEyFk
- Snowmobile Macgyver Tool Kit: https://youtu.be/4WBNu_t6Bbk
- Head and Face Protection: https://youtu.be/jIzW89wOyZI
- Pre-season prep: https://youtu.be/zJmrb8cZlR4
- My Transceiver: https://youtu.be/yblaDWP7Jf8
- BCA Avalanche Safety for Snowmobilers
- How to Fix Common Snowmobile Problems in the Field: https://youtu.be/g9fiTxEvuFk
- Sleducation: Avalanche Safety for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/EWFOd_9DYb8
- Intro to Avalanche Transceivers for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/6ZLSBmsceog
- Avalanche Transceiver Trailhead Test for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/rWoXbadFBsY
- Avalanche Transceiver Searching Use Snowmobiles: https://youtu.be/w1ucyI6LMXM
- BCA Avalanche Rescue Series
- Beacon Search 101: https://youtu.be/nnHXLVA2FcE
- Avalanche Probing 101: https://youtu.be/-0_yDN5Drzw
- Avalanche Shoveling 101: https://youtu.be/dGQg9o3vAkM
- Organizing a Backcountry Rescue: https://youtu.be/gywtmukgt8s
- Post Avalanche Patient Care: https://youtu.be/9FyIeUy4wpQ
- Backcountry Evacuation: https://youtu.be/WPF-dciefL8
- Complex Multiple Burials Backup Techniques: https://youtu.be/pB6AfY2KyYo
- National Avalanche Center
- Avalanche Problems Explained: https://youtu.be/DkbnT_9-cHU
- Intro to North American Avalanche Danger Scale: https://youtu.be/r_-KpOu7tbA
Announcements
Spring time is exciting, but remember to keep your stoke in check and in line with the weather and avalanche conditions. Look for whumphing, cracking and natural avalanches. Avoid slopes with strong solar radiation, wind loading, increasing temperatures and cornices. Click the +Full Forecast button below to read the details. Please submit your observations if you head out!