Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast Expired - 02/19/2022

Above 2,500ftConsiderable

1,500 to 2,500ftModerate

Below 1,500ftLow

The Avy Rose shows the forecasted danger by elevation and aspect.

It adds more detail about where you are likely to find the dangers mentioned in the forecast. The inner circle shows upper elevations (mountain top), the second circle is middle elevations, and the outer circle represents lower elevations.

Think of the Rose as a birds-eye view of a mountain, looking down from above. The rose allows our forecasters to visually show you which parts of the mountain they are most concerned about.

WNWNNEESESSW

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

Aspect: SW-N-E Aspects

Elevation: Near and Above Tree line

 

Bottom Line: Light snow accumulations above 1,500′ over the past few days have been blown by strong SE winds. These wind slabs are expected to be thin 4-10″ and reactive to human triggering. Before this recent storm, our zones got destroyed by wind and rain up to ~3500′. This has led to a creation of a firm bed surface for wind slab to slide on. Weak snow may also be present on top of the hard bed surface which should add extra consideration. New storm snow with wind transport will likely not bond well between the old and new snow interface. Natural avalanches remain possible and human triggered avalanches are likely on leeward slopes (slopes opposite of the prevailing wind – see Avalanche Rose).

 

Travel Advice:

  • Avoid leeward slopes where the new snow was loaded and created surface wind slab.
  • Look for signs of snow that has been moved around by the wind (scouring and pillows of wind slab)
  • Look, listen and feel for shooting cracks, collapses and hallow sounds.
  • Avoid terrain trap areas such as cliffs and gullies, and areas where it is hard to escape off to the side.

 

Additional Consideration:

We have removed Persistent as a problem as we believe deeper layers are currently dormant. It is important to understand that the unlikely potential does not translate to absolute. You could still trigger a persistent slab in thin or shallow snow even if we haven’t had recent feedback or natural avalanche activity. Remember that persistent slabs are unpredictable and that tests and observations can be unreliable. A probe can be very helpful to determine snow depth and presence of deeper buried weak layers by noting resistance as the probe moves through the snow. Continue to use wide margins of safety, collect information and be patient when it comes to more committing terrain.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

From 1/29 to 2/1, several reports came in of recent avalanches in the alpine. The common characteristics of these slides were wide propagation, and failing 2-5ft deep at the interface below the wind slabs from last week’s atmospheric river. We have strong reason to suspect these slides occurred on a buried surface hoar layer from 1/20. They happened on all aspects, at elevations from 3000 – 5000ft, and all were in wind sheltered areas below ridges, features, and starting zones. Slide were observed in the Transitional and Lutak zones.

4Winds zone.  SW.  4000-5000′

 

Near Mt. Kraus

The confluence of the Boundary and Saksaia glaciers above Glacier Creek. N.  ~4700′

Weather

Forecast:

Saturday will have a slight chance of precipitation and overcast skies as a low pressure system diminishes. Expect freezing levels to drop below 1000′ and a trend towards cooler temperatures. Light SE winds becoming NW by late evening into Saturday as northerly outflow and clearing skies return to the region.

Seasonal Summary:

  • Feb 16-19th light snow 3-4″ with freezing levels reaching 1,500′ strong south winds.
  • Feb 12-14th had freeze/thaw cycles that locked up the snowpack to ~4,000′.
  • Feb 5th-9th brought snow levels near 3,500ft, and 2.5-4″ of SWE with strong south winds.
  • Feb 1st-4th brought in 12-24″ of low density powder.
  • Jan 27-29 brought 1.5 – 2.4″ of SWE with freezing levels near 1500ft.
  • An Atmospheric river hit Jan 21-22. It brought in 2-7″ of SWE (2-5ft of snow above 2500ft, mostly rain below)
  • Jan 9th-15th brought 24-48″ of new snow in the alpine, with some light rain up to 3,500ft, followed by heavier rain up to 2000ft.
  • Very strong NW winds and arctic temperatures blasted the area the first week of January.
  • Jan 1st: New snow (20″ in Lutak, 7″ Transitional zone) buried any preserved surface hoar.
  • Moderate NW winds hit exposed slopes Dec 19-20th.
  • Surface hoar formed on all aspects and elevations Dec 17-18th.
  • December brought in about 2-5 feet of snowfall (highest in Lutak zone), and a few strong NW wind events.
  • November brought consistent heavy snowfalls, cold weather, and SE winds.
  • October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts.
 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline **  122″*  0″ / 0″*  4″ / 0.2″*  1500′  Strong, SE   3″ / 0.3″*
Flower Mountain @ treeline  69″  0″ / 0″  4″ / 0.2″  1500′  Strong, SE   3″ / 0.3″
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft  31″  0″ / 0″  2.5″ / 0.1″  0′  Moderate, SE   5″ / 0.5″

( *star means meteorological estimate )

** The Ripinsky weather station is in need of repair, and will likely be down until Summer.

Additional Information

Safe backcountry travel requires training and experience. You control your own risk by choosing where, when and how you travel. Ride rescue ready. Be prepared for an emergency. Prevent hypothermia. Carry bear spray. Winter is a high consequence environment.

Become a sustaining Haines Avalanche Center Member by clicking the poster or visiting dev.alaskasnow.org/joinHAC. Support local forecasts, observations, education and weather stations. Join a community of winter recreationalists. Benefit from collective knowledge and skills. Help keep your friends and family safe in the backcountry. Get a free limited edition mountain buff, or neck gaiter with a $50 membership (first 20 members!).

 

Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.

 

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