Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast Expired - 01/15/2022

Above 2,500ftConsiderable

1,500 to 2,500ftConsiderable

Below 1,500ftConsiderable

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wet Avalanches:

Aspect: all aspects

Elevation: Treeline and below

 

Bottom Line: Earlier this week we had around 16″+ of new upside-down snow in this zone, followed by a major warm up and more rain-on-snow below treeline. You are likely to encounter wet surface snow below treeline today, and human triggering of heavy wet sluffs and slabs will be likely in terrain steeper than 30 degrees.

 

Travel Advice: Conditions are saturated and isothermal at lower elevations. Expect the new snow to slide around, or to run from paths above. You should avoid steep terrain and run-outs. Especially watch out for terrain traps where even small slides could pile up quite deep.

 

See Storm Snow and Persistent Slab problem for above treeline travel advice.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Storm Snow:

Aspect: All

Elevation: All elevations, mainly at and above treeline – depending on freezing levels.

 

Travel advice: Sensitive new storm snow at the surface will come with visual clues. Look for natural avalanches and shooting cracks. Use small inconsequential test slopes to sense how reactive the storm snow is. Keep at eye out for increasing temperature, or wet heavy snow (See Wet Slab Problem above). Avoid recently wind loaded slopes – and areas of blowing snow.

 

 

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 3

Persistent Slab:

Aspect: Mainly on wind-protected and wind loaded slopes, most likely beneath terrain features on S, SE, and E aspects

Elevation: All elevations, mainly at and above treeline.

 

Travel advice: Consider any possible slopes harboring buried surface hoar, or other weak snow as guilty until proven innocent. Always use safe travel techniques such as only exposing one person at a time both on the way up and down. Identify and avoid thin areas where weak layers are more likely to trigger a slide from. Group up in safe zones that are out of harms way. Have good communication, including radios and a set plan in case of an emergency. Be practiced at companion rescue..

  • Facets formed on the surface at the end of the arctic outflow event (around Jan 7) from high daily temperature swings.
  • Surface hoar from Dec 18th may have been preserved in wind-protected areas. It is now buried by about a foot of snow.
  • Recent observations from Old Faithful found a thin crust with weak snow down 60-70cm near 3,200′ and below
  • This bathtub ring effect, from lower-elevations to mid-elevation, where freezing levels are more likely to cause crusts and weak layers – should be carefully evaluated.
  • Weaker snow (buried facets) forming between wind slabs in the top of the pack

 

It is still possible that any surface avalanches could step down to deeper weak layers, the October rain crust, or even the ground in alpine areas. 

 

 

Buried surface hoar layer (thin grey line) in an opening below treeline in the Transitional zone. This layer is now about 1-3ft deep. It exists in isolated wind protected areas.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

01/14/2022  –  Numerous Wet Loose small avalanches reported along Haines Hwy   

Weather

Forecast:

As the low moves northward, it should bring SE AK more precip.
Many areas have been reporting light rain most of the day. Now
some of the expected rain could mix with snow late tonight but
amounts should be mostly minimal. Liquid precip amounts tonight
through tomorrow will have a wide range. About a quarter to half
inch in the north to around a half inch to inch in the south, with
some locally higher amounts.

Temperatures tonight should cool to the 30s for most, some lows
in the 20s are possible in the northern Lynn Canal area. Highs
tomorrow will range in the 30s to low 40s. Cold air begins to
creep into the panhandle the second half of the weekend so lower
temps are expected.

Winds will increase as low passes and then calm back down as the low weakens and fades out.

Seasonal Summary:

  • A strong storm brought 16-36″ of new snow Jan 9th-11th, finishing with warm up and some light rain up to 3,500ft.
  • Very strong NW winds and arctic temperatures blasted the area the first week of January
  • Jan 1st: New snow (20″ in Lutak, 7″ Transitional zone) buried any preserved surface hoar.
  • Moderate NW winds hit exposed slopes Dec 19-20th
  • Surface hoar formed on all aspects and elevations Dec 17-18th
  • December brought in about 2-5 feet of snowfall (highest in Lutak zone), and a few strong NW wind events
  • November brought consistent heavy snowfalls, cold weather, and SE winds
  • October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts
 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline **  100″*  0″ / 0.88*  10″ / 1.88*  2000′  light, SE  1″ / 0.10*
Flower Mountain @ treeline  63″  3″ / 0.30  6″ / 0.60  2000′ mod, SW  1″ / 0.10*
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft  19.5″  0″ / 0.00  1″ / 0.10  2000′ mod, SW   1″ / 0.10*

( *star means meteorological estimate )

** The Ripinsky weather station is in need of repair, and will likely be down until Summer.

Additional Information

Ride rescue ready. Be prepared for an emergency. Prevent hypothermia. Carry bear spray. Winter is a high consequence environment.

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Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.

 

Education Video Links:

Announcements

Bottom Line:  We just had a dramatic change to our snowpack.  Most importantly is a continued blob of warm temps with rain up to 2000′.  SE winds blew hard earlier this week in the Alpine, while 16+” of new upside-down snow fell. New wind slabs have built up in any wind loaded areas in the alpine, and will be sitting on weak snow that fell Sunday. Human-triggered avalanches will be likely within the new snow, likely failing on the new/old snow interface. Avoid heavily wind loaded areas.