Haines Avalanche Center
Above 2,500ftConsiderable
1,500 to 2,500ftConsiderable
Below 1,500ftModerate
Degrees of Avalanche Danger
Avalanche Problems
Problem 1
Aspect: All, more on North/Northwest from wind transport.
Elevation: All
Snow accumulation was mild throughout the day but is increasing overnight. Totals could reach up to 16” and temps in the teens. With light to moderate South/Southeast winds fresh storm slabs are building.
The Bottom Line: As snowfall increases, avalanche danger will be on the rise. Fresh storm slabs are being formed. Many areas in this zone have been wrecked by NW winds over the last 2 weeks, but isolated wind-protected and wind loaded slopes are likely to harbor weak layers (including surface hoar, depth hoar, and crust facets), buried between and beneath various stubborn wind slabs.
Travel Advice: Watch for red flags (shooting cracks, collapsing or recent natural avalanche activity). Stay away from slopes below ridgelines, roll-overs, or cross loaded gullies and other features steep enough to slide >30 degrees. Beware of fresh cornices that have formed. Avoid terrain traps where snow could pile up quickly, or the consequences of a slide could cause injury or death.
Note: Surface avalanches could step down to weaker buried layers, see Persistent Slab problem.
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Problem 2
Aspect: Mainly on wind-protected and wind loaded slopes, most likely beneath terrain features on S, SE, and E aspects
Elevation: All elevations, mainly at and above treeline.
Bottom Line: Fresh, small surface slabs within the new snow could be easy to trigger and potentially step down to deeper slabs that have wide propagation. Identify and avoid features of concern, such as trigger points, sheltered slopes, thin areas in the snowpack and steep wind loaded slopes below terrain features.
Travel advice: Keep an eye on the changing weather, such as snowfall intensity and amounts. Consider any possible slopes harboring buried surface hoar, or other weak snow as guilty until proven innocent. Always use safe travel techniques such as only exposing one person at a time both on the way up and down. Identify and avoid thin areas where weak layers are more likely to trigger a slide from. Group up in safe zones that are out of harms way. Have good communication, including radios and a set plan in case of an emergency. Be practiced at companion rescue..
The persistent slab danger is not going away, it is standing by waiting for the right trigger. We have not had a crush and flush cycle, or stabilizing event. Keep in mind that most avalanches are triggered by someone in the group.
- Surface hoar from Dec 18th may have been preserved in wind-protected areas. It is now buried by 4-10″ of snow.
- Recent observations from Old Faithful found a thin crust with weak snow down 60-70cm near 3,200′ and below
- This bathtub ring effect, from lower-elevations to mid-elevation, where freezing levels are more likely to cause crusts and weak layers – should be carefully evaluated.
- Weaker snow (buried facets) forming between wind slabs in the top of the pack
It is still possible that any surface avalanches could step down to deeper weak layers, the October rain crust, or even the ground in alpine areas.
Likelihood:
- Almost Certain
- Very Likely
- Likely
- Possible
- Unlikely
Size:
- Historic
- Very Large
- Large
- Small
Trend
- Increasing
- Steady
- Decreasing
Avalanche Activity
This natural avalanche occurred on Dec 12th on Old Faithful during a wind event. It ran on a cross-loaded NE aspect at 3200ft, running on the October rain crust. It shows that given a heavy new load, this persistent weak layer can activate and cause a large avalanche.
Weather
An incoming storm Friday-Friday night is expected to bring 6-16″ of new snow. Accumulations will be less further up valley from the ocean. Strong NW winds and possibly record cold temperatures are expected Sunday into mid week.
- New snow in the Lutak zone buried any preserved surface hoar on Dec 20th
- Moderate NW winds hit exposed slopes Dec 19-20th
- Surface hoar formed on all aspects and elevations Dec 17-18th
- December brought in about 2-5 feet of snowfall (highest in Lutak zone), and a few strong NW wind events
- November brought consistent heavy snowfalls, cold weather, and SE winds
- October brought heavy snow in the alpine, followed by a few rain/sun crusts
Snow Depth [in] | Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] | Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in] | Today’s Freezing Level [ft] | Today’s Winds | Next 24-hr Snow/SWE | |
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline ** | 76″* | 16″ / 1.00* | 16″ / 1.00* | 0′ | mod, SE>NW | 6″ / 0.40* |
Flower Mountain @ treeline | 55″ | 12″ / 0.80 | 12″ / 0.80 | 0′ | mod, SE>NW | 3″ / 0.20* |
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft | 29″ | 10″ / 0.70 | 10″ / 0.70 | 0′ | mod, SE>NW | 1″ / 0.10* |
( *star means meteorological estimate )
** The Ripinsky weather station is in need of repair, and will likely be down until Summer.
Additional Information
Be prepared for an emergency and hypothermia. Winter is a high consequence environment. Carry bear spray.
Become a sustaining Haines Avalanche Center Member by clicking the poster or visiting dev.alaskasnow.org/joinHAC. Support local forecasts, observations, education and weather stations. Join a community of winter recreationalists. Benefit from collective knowledge and skills. Help keep your friends and family safe in the backcountry. Get a free limited edition mountain buff, or neck gaiter with a $50 membership (first 20 members!).
Practice like you play. Make sure all your rescue gear is fully functional and your beacon has NEW batteries. Make sure 1) everyone in the group has a functioning beacon, shovel and probe 2) knows how to use them and 3) has trained in companion rescue in the last year. Keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for red flag avalanche conditions, natural avalanches, whoomphing or collapsing, and shooting cracks.
Education Video Links:
- AIARE
- How to Practice Avalanche Rescue Snowmobile Edition: https://youtu.be/2ML499MMDfM
- AK Sled Shed Motorized Learning:
- Intro: https://youtu.be/aoagKHfGkxs
- Personal Electronics in Avalanche Terrain: https://youtu.be/2Vz9S0OEyFk
- Snowmobile Macgyver Tool Kit: https://youtu.be/4WBNu_t6Bbk
- Head and Face Protection: https://youtu.be/jIzW89wOyZI
- Pre-season prep: https://youtu.be/zJmrb8cZlR4
- My Transceiver: https://youtu.be/yblaDWP7Jf8
- BCA Avalanche Safety for Snowmobilers
- How to Fix Common Snowmobile Problems in the Field: https://youtu.be/g9fiTxEvuFk
- Sleducation: Avalanche Safety for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/EWFOd_9DYb8
- Intro to Avalanche Transceivers for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/6ZLSBmsceog
- Avalanche Transceiver Trailhead Test for Snowmobilers: https://youtu.be/rWoXbadFBsY
- Avalanche Transceiver Searching Use Snowmobiles: https://youtu.be/w1ucyI6LMXM
- BCA Avalanche Rescue Series
- Beacon Search 101: https://youtu.be/nnHXLVA2FcE
- Avalanche Probing 101: https://youtu.be/-0_yDN5Drzw
- Avalanche Shoveling 101: https://youtu.be/dGQg9o3vAkM
- Organizing a Backcountry Rescue: https://youtu.be/gywtmukgt8s
- Post Avalanche Patient Care: https://youtu.be/9FyIeUy4wpQ
- Backcountry Evacuation: https://youtu.be/WPF-dciefL8
- Complex Multiple Burials Backup Techniques: https://youtu.be/pB6AfY2KyYo
- National Avalanche Center
- Avalanche Problems Explained: https://youtu.be/DkbnT_9-cHU
- Intro to North American Avalanche Danger Scale: https://youtu.be/r_-KpOu7tbA
Announcements
Bottom Line Avalanche danger is on the rise. Fresh storm slabs are being formed. Isolated wind-protected and wind loaded slopes are likely to harbor deeper weak layers (including surface hoar, depth hoar, and crust facets). Click the –Full Forecast– button below for more details. Please submit your observations!