Haines Avalanche Center

Forecast Expired - 12/13/2020

Above 2,500ftModerate

1,500 to 2,500ftModerate

Below 1,500ftModerate

Degrees of Avalanche Danger

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme

Avalanche Problems

Problem 1

Wind Slab:

Extreme weather should be concern for extreme avalanche conditions. Near constant precipitation (very heavy at times) and strong southerly winds have plagued the forecast region since the beginning of December. Significant loading near and above treeline have created a series of wind slab unknown in size and predictability. Punchy snow, visible loading and strong over weak layer indicate the presence of these wind slabs that could propagate much larger than expected. A wide margin of safety is necessary for mitigating this avalanche hazard with the extraordinary weather event. Lower run-out zones should also be assessed carefully and avoided while the snowpack has time to adjust.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Problem 2

Persistent Slab:

Dynamic weather causes dynamic problems. Persistent issues in the mid pack and at the base continue to exist. Likely rounded and bonding, but still needs respect. They are widespread in the 1,500 – 3,500′ (unknown in alpine region??) zones but stubborn to initiate. Which makes this problem unlikely. Keep in mind the snowpack is 4-6+’ deep in this zone which could cause some serious issues if slabs are released(step downs). Best practices would to avoid shallow/rocky areas, especially in complex terrain.

Likelihood:

  • Almost Certain
  • Very Likely
  • Likely
  • Possible
  • Unlikely

Size:

  • Historic
  • Very Large
  • Large
  • Small

Trend

  • Increasing
  • Steady
  • Decreasing

Avalanche Activity

Bottom Line: We are dealing with 2 critical situation….Natural disasters in our home town and a global pandemic. Other than that, we have limited data and observations to make a moderate to high confidant assessment of what is really going on out there. So as my dad always tells me, “be cool out there!”. It is still early and there is bigger things going on other than our desires to be rad or ride epic pow.

Weather

Mostly clear weather for the region the past two days saw daytime and overnight temperatures drop below freezing down to sea-level. Strong northerly outflow winds are forecasted through the weekend with light precipitation into early next week. Wind gust could be up to 45 mph with low temperatures 10-20F.

 Snow Depth [in] Last 24-hr Snow/SWE [in] Last 3-days Snow/SWE [in]  Today’s Freezing Level [ft]  Today’s Winds Next 24-hr Snow/SWE
Mount Ripinsky @ treeline
  ~90″  0″ / 0.00*  0″ / 0.00*  Sea-level Moderate to Strong, N  0″ / 0.00*
Flower Mountain @ treeline
  56″  0″ / 0.00*  0″ / 0.00*   Sea-level  Moderate to Strong, N   0″ / 0.00*
Chilkat Pass @ 3,100ft
  13″   0″ / 0.00* 0″ / 0.00*   Sea-level Moderate to Strong, N 0″ / 0.00*

( *star means meteorological estimate )

Additional Information

It’s time to start thinking avalanche. Dust off your gear and make sure it is fully functional. Put new batteries in your beacons! Do a beacon practice to start the season and keep your skills fresh. If you head into the hills, watch out for avalanche conditions, and be especially careful of rocks and hidden hazards like crevasses beneath the snow. WEAR A HELMET!

Education Video Links:

Announcements

We have begun conditions updates for winter 2020/2021. Click the + Full Forecast link below for each zone to read more.